As President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare for the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle June 27, Rice University political scientists are available to discuss the event.
Mark Jones, a professor of political science, is available to discuss expectations for the debate.
“While most presidential debates tend to be relatively inconsequential in regard to their impact on a presidential election, this debate could be different due to the doubts surrounding President Biden’s physical condition and mental acuity,” Jones said. “A poor performance by Biden would increase pressure on the president to step aside prior to or at the August Democratic National Convention and increase jockeying within the Democratic Party over who his replacement would be. In contrast, a good performance by Biden — and the bar here is relatively low — would largely stifle intraparty efforts to oust Biden as the Democratic Party’s nominee as well as undercut a major Republican line of attack against Biden, that he is not fit to serve another four-year term.”
Jones said that while Trump’s age and mental acuity is not as much of an issue for voters, any Trump gaffes that could be attributed to mental acuity would undercut any GOP attacks on Biden.
“Similarly, in 2020, Trump’s aggressive style with frequent interruptions often aided Biden by preventing potential unforced errors, which, combined with Trump’s tendency to improvise, could result in unforced errors on his part if he steers the debate toward topics that have more minuses than pluses for his election efforts,” Jones said.
Ric Stoll, the Albert Thomas Professor of Political Science, is available to discuss the candidates’ expertise in U.S. foreign and defense policy, which will likely be addressed during the debate amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
“Since both candidates have served as president, they have more knowledge about how foreign and defense policy works than the typical presidential candidate,” Stoll said. “This might result in the candidates getting into the weeds on some topics, like the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, in a way that other candidates would not.”
Jones also serves as a fellow at Rice’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. His expertise and scholarly work has been widely cited by local, state and national media as well as numerous political campaigns. For more information on Jones, visit https://profiles.rice.edu/faculty/mark-p-jones.
Stoll is a scholar of international conflict, public attitudes on foreign and defense policy and American national security policy. He has been widely quoted by local and national media. For more information on Stoll, visit https://profiles.rice.edu/faculty/richard-j-stoll.
To schedule an interview, contact Amy McCaig, senior media relations specialist at Rice, at 713-348-6777 or amym@rice.edu.