HOUSTON – (Oct. 11, 2023) – Experts from Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy are available to discuss the Hamas attack on Israel, Israel’s response and the implications for foreign policy and global energy developments.
Ambassador David Satterfield, director of the Baker Institute and the institute’s Edward P. Djerejian Center for the Middle East, explained the timeline for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and what prompted the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas in conversations with the BBC, CBC and other media outlets. The Israeli government faces an “unprecedented” conflict and a military dilemma with more Jews murdered in a single day since the Holocaust and over a hundred hostages taken, Satterfield said.
Satterfield said, “How do you act in a way that doesn’t put those hostages at harm? How do you get the hostages returned without paying an unacceptable price to a terrorist organization?”
Satterfield also discussed the difficulties of an Israeli ground campaign, Hamas’ objectives and the potential role of Iran — directly or through the militant group Hezbollah.
An intelligence failure
H. Richard Sindelar, nonresident scholar in global diplomacy at the Baker Institute, discussed the lead-up to the conflict and explored Israeli’s intelligence failure in a 19FortyFive op-ed.
The assault leaves Israel facing many challenges, including possible action by Hezbollah or Iran, a pause on the normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia and thinned internal security resources, Sindelar wrote.
Qatar’s diplomatic role
Baker Institute Middle East fellow Kristian Coates Ulrichsen explored possible diplomatic action by Qatar, which is attempting to hold mediation talks between Hamas and Israeli officials. Doha has brokered peace in the past, but “this time might be more challenging, given the scale and intensity of what has happened,” Coates Ulrichsen said.
Implications for energy markets
The shutdown of Chevron’s Tamar natural gas platform, ordered by Israel following the events of Oct. 7, could make it harder for the company to market natural gas in the region, said Jim Krane, the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies. “Right now, we have no idea where this conflict is going,” Krane said. “That would call for some circumspection and call for some pause on investment.”
The conflict may also have consequences for oil production, Krane wrote in a Barron’s op-ed. Oil prices have not spiked yet thanks to the market’s improved insulation against geopolitical instability, but oil-producing governments may be “dialing back bilateral ambitions [with Israel] to avoid antagonizing publics overwhelmingly sympathetic to Palestinians.” That would be bad news for both President Joe Biden and American motorists, Krane said.
Mark Finley, fellow in global energy and oil, co-authored an article with Krane on the global climate's similarities with the oil embargo of 1979.
"Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine reprised the risks of energy 'weaponization.' Europe, in particular, has been hurt by overdependence on Russian natural gas and has raced to shift its energy sources," they wrote. "The Israel-Hamas war that began on Oct. 8, 2023, has not yet ignited retaliatory responses from Arab governments, and the initial impact on oil has been minimal, but geopolitical effects from such a large event could still roil markets."
To schedule an interview, or for more information, contact Avery Franklin, media relations specialist at Rice, at averyrf@rice.edu or 713-348-6327.